A new report by the Emirates Policy Center has spotlighted the escalating threat from the Islamic State (ISIS) offshoot in Somalia. The report reveals that ISIS has successfully expanded its foothold in the Bari region of the semi-autonomous Puntland state, gaining ground at the expense of the rival Al-Shabaab group, which is aligned with Al-Qaeda.
The report details that ISIS fighters have taken control of the strategic Al-Miskaad mountains from Al-Shabaab after years of clashes between the two groups. This mountainous region offers ISIS significant logistical advantages, including sea access, opportunities for taxation and financial operations, and potential coordination with the group’s offshoot in Yemen.
“The expansion of ISIS in Puntland provides the group with a significant propaganda boost to bolster its recruitment efforts and attract foreign fighters,” said Ahmed Khalid, a counterterrorism analyst at the Emirates Policy Center and the lead author of the report.
The report warns that ISIS’s gains in Puntland could complicate counterterrorism efforts across Somalia and impact regional maritime security and the interests of international partners. Concerns are mounting that the group may engage in piracy and compete with Al-Shabaab, known for providing protection to Somali pirates in exchange for a share of the ransom proceeds.
Additionally, the report underscores the potential for ISIS to expand its global funding and recruitment networks, which could lead to increased extortion activities and a surge of foreign fighters into Somalia.
“The Puntland administration must prioritize containing the threat of ISIS expansion within the state,” Khalid emphasized. “This can be achieved through increased intelligence work and community engagement, aiming to prevent further deterioration of the security situation, dry up ISIS’s funding streams, and undermine its cross-border organizational ties.”
The report also calls for a coordinated response from all stakeholders, addressing internal divisions and strengthening local governance across Somalia. Sustained internal and external support is crucial for Somalia to regain momentum in its comprehensive strategy to degrade both ISIS and Al-Shabaab, involving military pressure as well as ideological and financial warfare.
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